Dutch gambling tax review shows revenue gains below state forecasts

The Dutch government’s latest assessment of the gambling tax increase has concluded that the policy generated substantially less revenue than originally projected. A joint review carried out by the Ministry of Finance and the Dutch gambling regulator Kansspelautoriteit (KSA) found that changes in player behaviour, regulatory reforms and broader market developments reduced the expected benefits of the tax increases.

The findings raise questions about the effectiveness of higher gambling taxation as a revenue-generating measure, particularly in heavily regulated markets where operators face increasing compliance costs and restrictions.

Review highlights significant revenue gap

The review examined the impact of a two-stage increase in gambling tax rates in the Netherlands. The first increase took effect on 1 January 2025, when the tax rate rose from 30.5% to 34.2%. A second increase followed at the beginning of 2026, bringing the rate to 37.8%.

Policymakers had expected the measure to deliver substantial new revenue to the Dutch Treasury. Forecasts estimated an additional €108 million in tax income during 2025 and €216 million during 2026.

However, the actual results fell significantly short of those expectations.

According to the review, the higher rates generated only approximately €2 million in additional revenue during 2025 compared with 2024 levels. In 2026, the increase produced around €57 million in extra revenue, well below the projected amount.

The report suggests that a shrinking taxable gambling market played a major role in reducing the effectiveness of the policy.

Gross gaming revenue base continues to contract

A key finding of the review was the decline in gross gaming revenue (GGR), which serves as the foundation for gambling tax calculations.

The KSA noted that determining the precise effect of tax increases is difficult because several regulatory changes occurred during the same period. Nevertheless, the regulator identified a range of measures that likely contributed to reduced gambling activity among licensed operators.

As a result, the taxable revenue base contracted, limiting the amount of additional tax generated despite the higher rates.

The report indicates that when gambling activity declines, raising tax percentages does not necessarily result in proportionally higher tax income. Instead, operators and consumers may adjust their behaviour in ways that reduce overall tax receipts.

Deposit limits and advertising restrictions reshape the market

Several regulatory reforms introduced in recent years have altered the Dutch gambling landscape.

Beginning in October 2024, monthly net deposit limits were introduced for players using licensed gambling platforms. Individuals classified as younger adults became subject to a monthly limit of €300, while players aged 24 and above faced a limit of €700.

Authorities introduced these measures as part of broader responsible gambling initiatives aimed at reducing excessive gambling expenditure and enhancing consumer protection.

At the same time, stricter advertising restrictions were implemented across the sector.

Sponsorship of television programmes by gambling companies was prohibited in July 2024. Additional restrictions followed in 2025 when gambling sponsorship agreements involving sports teams were banned.

These measures significantly reduced marketing opportunities for operators and may have contributed to lower customer acquisition rates and reduced player activity.

The review notes that these changes occurred alongside the gambling tax increases, making it difficult to isolate the effect of any single policy.

Temporary sporting boost proved short-lived

The report also references the temporary increase in gambling activity associated with UEFA Euro 2024.

Major international sporting tournaments often generate elevated betting volumes, creating short-term boosts in operator revenue and corresponding tax receipts.

However, officials observed that the positive impact linked to the tournament faded relatively quickly after the event concluded.

Without a similar catalyst in subsequent periods, gambling activity returned to more typical levels. This contributed to weaker revenue performance than expected and further reduced the effectiveness of higher taxation measures.

Operators faced growing financial pressure

The review highlights that many operators experienced increased financial pressure following the tax increases and regulatory reforms.

Industry participants have repeatedly argued that rising tax obligations, combined with stricter compliance requirements, have reduced profitability.

Some operators reportedly restructured operations or exited parts of the market as they attempted to adapt to the changing regulatory environment.

The report stops short of assigning direct causation between individual business decisions and the gambling tax increases. However, it acknowledges that the higher tax burden formed part of the broader economic pressures affecting the sector.

State-owned operators among the most affected

The financial impact was particularly visible among state-owned gambling operators.

Holland Casino reports profit decline

State-owned casino operator Holland Casino experienced significant reductions in profitability following the tax changes.

According to projections cited in the review, pre-tax profits were expected to decline by approximately €27 million during 2025. By 2026, the reduction was estimated to reach around €54 million.

The figures illustrate the extent to which higher taxation can affect operator earnings even when businesses remain active in the market.

Nederlandse Loterij also affected

The review also examined the financial performance of Nederlandse Loterij.

Projected declines related to corporate taxation, statutory levies and profits amounted to approximately €16 million during 2025. The impact was expected to increase to roughly €34 million during 2026.

These results suggest that publicly owned operators were not insulated from the effects of the broader regulatory and fiscal changes affecting the industry.

Land-based gambling sector sees attendance decline

The review found evidence of weakening demand within the land-based gambling segment.

Attendance at casinos and gaming halls fell by approximately 11% between the first quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026.

In addition, the number of gaming halls operating across the country continued to decline during the period under review.

Industry observers have noted that a combination of higher operating costs, changing consumer behaviour and increasing regulatory requirements may be contributing to these trends.

While the review does not attribute attendance declines exclusively to taxation, it acknowledges that the cumulative effect of multiple policy measures has created a more challenging business environment.

Impact on sports and charitable funding

The financial consequences of the market changes extended beyond operators and government revenue.

Funding directed toward charitable causes experienced a modest increase of approximately 1.8% between 2024 and 2025.

However, contributions supporting sports organisations moved in the opposite direction.

The review found that sports funding declined by around 3.6% during the same period.

These findings demonstrate how changes in gambling market performance can affect a range of stakeholders that rely on industry-generated contributions.

Concerns over channelisation remain

One of the most closely watched issues in the Dutch gambling market is channelisation, the process of directing players toward licensed and regulated operators rather than unlicensed alternatives.

Industry representatives have previously argued that increasing taxes and regulatory restrictions could unintentionally encourage some consumers to seek services from offshore or unlicensed gambling websites.

The review notes that concerns regarding player migration remain under discussion across the sector.

Trade association VNLOK has recently taken action at the European level by filing a complaint with the European Commission concerning advertisements for unlicensed gambling platforms appearing on services operated by Meta.

The issue highlights ongoing debates regarding the balance between consumer protection, tax policy and the competitiveness of the regulated market.

Future policy considerations

The review’s conclusions may influence future discussions about gambling taxation and regulation in the Netherlands.

While higher tax rates were expected to provide substantial additional revenue for public finances, the findings suggest that tax increases alone may not achieve projected outcomes when market conditions change simultaneously.

Policymakers are likely to continue examining the relationship between taxation, regulation, player behaviour and channelisation rates as they evaluate the long-term sustainability of the Dutch gambling framework.

The report serves as an important reminder that gambling markets are influenced by a complex combination of economic, regulatory and behavioural factors. As governments seek to balance consumer protection objectives with revenue generation, the Dutch experience may provide valuable lessons for other regulated jurisdictions considering similar measures.

Conclusion

The latest review of the Dutch gambling tax increases presents a clear picture of the challenges associated with relying on higher tax rates to generate substantial new revenue. Despite expectations that the two-stage tax rise would deliver hundreds of millions of euros in additional income, the actual results fell significantly below forecasts. A combination of declining gross gaming revenue, deposit restrictions, advertising limitations, changing player behaviour and broader market pressures reduced the size of the taxable base and weakened the impact of the policy.

The findings also reveal wider consequences for operators, sports funding and the overall structure of the regulated gambling market. As debates continue over channelisation and consumer protection, Dutch policymakers may need to carefully assess whether future fiscal measures can achieve their intended objectives without placing additional pressure on licensed operators. The review offers a valuable case study for regulators and governments worldwide seeking to balance taxation, market sustainability and responsible gambling goals.

FAQs

What is the current gambling tax rate in the Netherlands?
The gambling tax rate in the Netherlands increased to 37.8% at the start of 2026 following a two-stage tax increase.

Why was the gambling tax increased?
The tax increase was introduced to generate additional revenue for the state while maintaining regulatory oversight of the gambling sector.

How much additional revenue was expected from the tax increase?
Authorities originally forecast an additional €108 million in 2025 and €216 million in 2026.

Did the tax increase meet expectations?
No. The review found that actual revenue gains were substantially below official forecasts.

What factors reduced tax revenue growth?
Key factors included declining gross gaming revenue, deposit limits, advertising restrictions and broader market changes.

What are deposit limits in the Netherlands?
Monthly net deposits are capped at €300 for younger adults and €700 for players aged 24 and above.

How were state-owned operators affected?
Both Holland Casino and Nederlandse Loterij reported projected declines in profits and related financial contributions.

What happened to casino attendance?
Casino and gaming hall attendance declined by approximately 11% between the first quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026.

What is channelisation in gambling regulation?
Channelisation refers to directing players toward licensed operators rather than unregulated gambling platforms.

Could the findings affect future gambling policy?
Yes. The results may influence future discussions about taxation levels, regulatory measures and market sustainability.