Ireland regulator links bonuses to gambling risk

The Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland (GRAI), the country’s newly formed national gambling watchdog, has released findings from a detailed behavioral study examining the influence of inducements such as free bets, bonuses, and money-back offers on gambling habits. The research, commissioned by the GRAI ahead of Ireland’s planned 2026 licensing framework, points to a direct connection between the use of promotional incentives and an increase in consumer gambling expenditure.

According to the authority’s findings, players exposed to such incentives were found to increase their betting spend by an average of 11 percent. These conclusions, drawn from a study of 622 male participants under the age of 40, have sparked renewed calls for stricter controls on the use of such marketing tools by gambling operators in the Irish market.

Study design and participant behavior

The study was carried out in the months leading up to the UEFA Euro 2024 football tournament. Participants, all male and under 40, were selected due to their representation of a demographic most responsive to sports betting marketing.

Researchers presented participants with a series of realistic betting scenarios. Some included incentives such as free bets, cash-back offers, and sign-up bonuses, while others did not. Participants were then asked which of these options they would choose.

The results were unambiguous. When incentives were present:

• 27.2% of participants opted for a “bad bet” (i.e., a bet with worse odds) when a free bet was included.
• By contrast, only 7.9% made the same selection when no promotion was offered.
• With money-back offers, 19% still chose an inferior bet, compared to 4.9% who did so without any inducement.
• Free bets generated the largest increase in spending on suboptimal bets, with average wager sizes exceeding €2, compared to under €1.50 with cash-back incentives.
• Where odds were consistent across all scenarios, players placed four times more money when a bonus was included than when no promotion was available.

These findings suggest that incentives not only affect whether individuals bet, but how much they are willing to risk—even when the return potential is lower. This trend was particularly prominent among players already exhibiting problematic gambling tendencies.

Greater risk among vulnerable individuals

The GRAI-commissioned study applied the Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI) to categorize participants based on risk levels—ranging from low-risk to problem gamblers. The data revealed that individuals categorized as “problem gamblers” or exhibiting “moderate evidence” of problem gambling were significantly more influenced by incentives than others.

Spending on promotional bets more than doubled in these two categories when compared to participants who were offered no promotional inducement.

Even among players identified as low-risk or non-problematic gamblers, exposure to incentives led to increased spending, particularly on bets where the odds were considered poor. This suggests that promotions play a universal role in distorting rational betting decisions, affecting players across all risk levels.

A call for tighter regulation and industry accountability

In light of the evidence, researchers have called for comprehensive regulatory intervention. The report explicitly recommends restricting or banning certain types of inducements, noting that unlike promotions in other commercial sectors, gambling incentives have a demonstrable capacity to manipulate behavior in ways that increase risk and harm.

“Incentives to gamble function differently than promotions in other sectors,” the report concludes. “They not only encourage brand selection but actively influence consumer behavior—often detrimentally.”

The authors of the study have cited Spain as a regulatory model, where sign-up bonuses have been banned, and all other bonuses are capped at €100. Spain's restrictive framework is seen as a potential blueprint for Ireland, which is in the process of finalizing its own gambling legislation and licensing regime.

GRAI licensing update: timeline and operator feedback

This behavioral study comes at a pivotal moment for Ireland’s gambling reform process. After launching a call for expressions of interest in March 2025, the GRAI has confirmed its intention to open formal licensing applications later this year. The ultimate goal is to launch a new regulatory framework by 2026.

As part of the process, the GRAI is developing the licensing architecture for both online and land-based operators. Recently, it has been addressing industry concerns, particularly regarding the proposed application fee structure.

Operators have criticized the initial proposal for calculating licensing fees based on total turnover, arguing that such a system could disproportionately burden smaller operators or those with lower margins.

In response, the GRAI has now indicated that it is considering:

• A tiered fee model based on Gross Gambling Yield (GGY).
• A possible hybrid model incorporating both turnover and GGY to ensure fairness across various operator types.
• A premises-based fee component for land-based operators, possibly assessed according to the number of gaming machines on site or the scale of operations.

This more flexible approach signals the regulator’s willingness to adapt its proposals in response to valid feedback, as it seeks to build a balanced, responsible framework that supports regulatory goals while enabling sustainable industry participation.

Regulatory context and societal responsibility

Ireland’s gambling market has traditionally been less regulated than many of its European counterparts. With the formation of the GRAI, however, the government aims to modernize gambling legislation, increase consumer protections, and introduce formal accountability measures for gambling operators.

One of the GRAI’s key mandates is to prevent gambling-related harm, especially among young people and vulnerable populations. The latest study reinforces the urgency of this mandate, revealing that marketing strategies rooted in incentives may be aggravating risky gambling behavior.

In combination with forthcoming licensing requirements, the GRAI is expected to introduce strict advertising and marketing standards. These may include:

• Limits on the use of bonuses and free bets.
• Transparency requirements for all promotions.
• Responsible gambling messaging in all promotional materials.
• Time- and amount-based caps on individual promotional offers.

Legal experts note that any such measures must balance consumer protection with operator rights, ensuring that marketing restrictions are proportionate and enforceable under Irish and EU law.

Industry reaction and future implications

The gambling industry is closely monitoring these developments. While there is some resistance to tighter promotional controls, major operators have generally recognized the direction of regulatory travel across Europe and are preparing for increased oversight.

If Ireland adopts a regime similar to Spain or Belgium—both of which have imposed significant restrictions on gambling advertising and bonuses—operators may face reduced scope for customer acquisition strategies that rely heavily on promotions.

However, public health advocates have welcomed the GRAI’s focus on empirical evidence. “For too long, we’ve relied on assumptions about the impact of advertising and promotions,” said one addiction researcher who consulted on the study. “Now we have clear data showing that these tactics drive risk, particularly among those least equipped to manage it.”

Conclusion

The Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland’s study represents a watershed moment in the country’s approach to regulating gambling incentives. By highlighting the tangible link between promotions and increased spending—particularly among vulnerable individuals—the research provides a robust basis for future regulatory action.

As Ireland prepares to usher in a new era of gambling regulation, the role of incentives like bonuses and free bets will undoubtedly come under greater scrutiny. Whether through outright bans or severe restrictions, such practices are likely to be redefined as the country prioritizes public health, consumer protection, and sustainable gambling behavior over aggressive marketing strategies.

FAQs

What is the Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland?
The Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland (GRAI) is a newly established body tasked with overseeing the regulation of gambling activities in Ireland.

What did the GRAI study examine?
The study focused on how gambling incentives like free bets and bonuses influence consumer spending and decision-making in betting scenarios.

How many people were involved in the study?
The study involved 622 male participants under the age of 40, surveyed ahead of the UEFA Euro 2024 tournament.

What were the main findings of the study?
The study found that incentives such as free bets and money-back offers led to an average increase of 11% in gambling expenditure, even when odds were unfavorable.

Are certain groups more affected by gambling incentives?
Yes, individuals identified as at-risk or problem gamblers were significantly more likely to spend money on bets when promotional incentives were offered.

How does Ireland’s regulation compare to other countries?
Ireland is in the process of implementing a new licensing regime. Countries like Spain already have stricter rules, including a ban on sign-up bonuses and a €100 cap on other promotions.

What changes are being proposed to gambling licensing in Ireland?
The GRAI plans to introduce a new licensing framework in 2026, with a fee structure possibly based on Gross Gambling Yield or a hybrid model with turnover.

Will Ireland ban free bets and bonuses?
While not yet confirmed, the GRAI’s study supports arguments in favor of restricting or capping such incentives to reduce harm.

What is the Problem Gambling Severity Index?
The PGSI is a standardized tool used to measure the severity of gambling problems among individuals, helping to identify at-risk behavior.

When will the new licensing system be implemented?
The GRAI intends to open licence applications in 2025, with full implementation of the new regulatory framework expected by 2026.