ATG reports improved channelisation in Sweden

Sweden’s regulated gambling framework has entered a critical phase in recent years, with lawmakers, regulators and licensed operators continuously monitoring the effectiveness of the market’s channelisation levels. Channelisation—the degree to which consumers choose licensed and regulated gambling operators over unlicensed alternatives—is a central policy metric in ensuring consumer protection, market integrity and effective supervision.

In this context, AB Trav och Galopp (ATG), one of Sweden’s most established and highly regulated gambling operators, has issued new data indicating a modest but notable improvement in the country’s channelisation rate for Q3. While the figures remain below the government’s initial objectives, the latest estimates suggest a gradual shift away from unlicensed platforms. ATG has also observed a tangible decline in visits to unregulated gambling websites, offering insights into emerging trends within Sweden’s digital gambling market.

This expanded report provides a comprehensive analysis of ATG’s findings, the broader regulatory environment, and the potential policy implications for Sweden’s gambling sector. It also contextualises the ongoing public discussion surrounding bonus regulations, player safety and the challenges of maintaining high channelisation levels in an evolving market.

Overview of Sweden’s channelisation objectives

When Sweden restructured and formally regulated its online gambling market in 2019, the government introduced a target channelisation rate of 90 per cent. The aim was to ensure that the vast majority of Swedish players would choose licensed operators bound by consumer protection requirements, anti-money laundering obligations and responsible gambling standards.

This benchmark was considered essential for safeguarding players and preserving the integrity of the digital gambling market. However, achieving and maintaining this target has proven complex. A wide array of foreign operators continues to offer gambling services to Swedish consumers without securing the required licences, often attracting users through unrestricted bonuses, broad game offerings and flexible payment systems.

With this backdrop, ATG’s quarterly assessments have become an important gauge for policymakers seeking to understand whether the national market is achieving or drifting away from the intended regulatory outcome.

ATG’s latest channelisation estimate for Q3

In its most recent analysis, ATG reported that Sweden’s online gambling channelisation rate stood between 74 and 85 per cent for Q3. This represents a slight improvement compared with the 70 to 82 per cent range recorded during the same period last year. While the improvement may appear modest, ATG’s findings indicate that a gradual shift is occurring, with more players evidently choosing licensed operators.

The upper boundary of ATG’s estimate aligns with the Swedish Gambling Authority’s (Spelinspektionen) official calculation of 85 per cent for 2024. Although the alignment suggests some consistency between regulatory and industry assessments, both figures remain below the nationally set target of 90 per cent.

Additionally, the regulator’s previous estimate for 2023—86 per cent—suggested that Sweden was once closer to its target than it is today. This subtle decline has prompted discussion about whether evolving market conditions, technological shifts or regulatory limits may be affecting channelisation performance.

ATG has historically produced channelisation estimates that are more conservative than those released by Spelinspektionen. Some stakeholders interpret this as an indication that the market may require further regulatory adjustments, while others believe the government’s original target may need revision to reflect current realities.

Decline in visits to unlicensed websites

One of the most significant findings in ATG’s report relates to the continued decrease in visits to unlicensed gambling platforms. According to ATG’s internal measurements, the share of traffic directed toward unlicensed operators fell from 3.4 per cent in Q1 2024 to 2.3 per cent in Q3.

This downward trend suggests that Swedish consumers may be gradually shifting back toward regulated channels—a development that aligns with both public policy goals and ATG’s corporate priorities.

ATG identified three unlicensed platforms that received the highest traffic volumes during the review period. The operator believes these sites are owned by Infiniza Limited, a foreign-based company operating without Swedish authorization. The three sites include:

• Unlimitcasino.co, which recorded 174,391 visits in Q3
• Luckyjungle.com, with 144,992 visits
• Refuelcasino.com, attracting 139,097 visits

Although these platforms received notable traffic, their presence also underscores the ongoing challenge of preventing unlicensed operators from reaching Swedish consumers. ATG has emphasized that additional enforcement measures or targeted policy reforms may be necessary to reduce such traffic further.

Unlicensed content offerings and the role of BankID

ATG’s research indicates that 16 of the top 20 most visited unlicensed gambling sites offered games from major, internationally recognised content providers. This finding raises ongoing questions about how certain providers manage distribution agreements and whether added safeguards are warranted to prevent distribution to unlicensed platforms.

Furthermore, ATG noted that eight of the 20 platforms enabled direct deposits and withdrawals through Swedish BankID systems via payment technology developed by Krofort. The use of BankID—a highly secure national digital identification system—is typically associated with regulated businesses in Sweden. Its presence in unlicensed environments suggests that payment service providers and regulatory authorities may need to examine the technological pathways through which such services are accessed.

ATG also highlighted that three of the most visited unlicensed websites are already included on Spelinspektionen’s list of prohibited or restricted operators. The continued visibility of these platforms suggests enforcement challenges remain, even when regulators formally block or blacklist certain operators.

Differences between online casino and sports betting channelisation

A recurring theme in ATG’s research involves the disparity between channelisation levels in different verticals. ATG estimates that online casino channelisation stands at roughly 79 per cent, while sports betting achieves a significantly higher 85 per cent.

This distinction is not new and has been observed in previous assessments. Sports betting tends to exhibit stronger channelisation due to its established regulatory oversight, lower bonus-driven competition and more stable market dynamics. Online casino, on the other hand, often attracts aggressive marketing from unlicensed operators, many of whom rely heavily on promotional bonuses and extensive game catalogs that exceed what licensed operators are permitted to offer under Swedish law.

It is important to note, however, that ATG’s estimates incorporate an assumption that average revenue per visit is considerably higher—at least tenfold—for unlicensed operators. This assumption, used for modeling purposes, may influence the perceived differences between verticals. Nevertheless, the gap in channelisation remains a substantive policy concern.

ATG’s renewed call for a bonus ban

Alongside its channelisation commentary, ATG reiterated its long-standing position regarding bonus restrictions in Sweden. The company’s CEO, Hasse Lord Skarplöth, reaffirmed ATG’s support for a complete ban on bonuses.

“I have long advocated a total bonus ban,” he said. “I am often met with the argument that it would drive players to the unlicensed market where bonuses flow. But if we succeed in strangling unlicensed gaming further, that protest will lose its force.”

ATG recently published a joint opinion piece with Svenska Spel, the state-controlled operator, reinforcing their shared view that a bonus ban would strengthen consumer protection and help reduce the influence of unlicensed platforms.

The proposal has, however, generated strong criticism from commercial operators active in Sweden. These operators argue that ATG and Svenska Spel would disproportionately benefit because of their historic visibility from the pre-2019 monopoly period, during which both organizations built extensive public recognition without needing promotional incentives. According to their critics, imposing a bonus ban today would limit market competitiveness and potentially hinder the growth of newer or smaller licensed operators.

Policy considerations and market stability

The ongoing debate about bonus limitations, enforcement challenges and channelisation rates illustrates the delicate balance required in regulating a mature online gambling market. Sweden’s legislative framework was originally designed to promote a safe, competitive and fully supervised industry. Yet as the digital environment evolves, policymakers must continuously adapt their approach to maintain alignment with player behaviour and technology trends.

The gradual decline in traffic to unlicensed sites is an encouraging development. However, the persistence of unlicensed activity, combined with the complex interplay between payment services, content supply chains and international hosting providers, shows that enforcement must remain proactive.

At the same time, any policy proposal—such as a full bonus ban—must be assessed through a lens of fairness, proportionality and legal risk. Overly restrictive measures could inadvertently reduce competition or incentivise players to seek more flexible, albeit unlicensed, offerings. Swedish lawmakers will likely continue examining these issues as they refine the regulatory framework.

Conclusion

ATG’s latest quarterly insights reveal a cautiously optimistic picture for Sweden’s regulated gambling industry. Although the national channelisation rate remains below the government’s original 90 per cent target, the upward trend and reduction in unlicensed site visits signal progress. The data suggests that regulatory oversight, combined with enhanced consumer awareness, may be gradually steering the market toward safer and more compliant play.

Nonetheless, considerable work remains. Differences between verticals, the presence of major content providers on unlicensed platforms and the role of BankID in unauthorized transactions all point to areas requiring close attention. The public debate around bonus regulations further highlights the complexity of fostering a competitive yet responsible gambling environment.

As Sweden continues refining its regulatory strategy, the industry will likely experience further discussions, legal considerations and technological adjustments. For now, ATG’s findings contribute meaningfully to the ongoing effort to shape a secure and stable gambling market for Swedish consumers.

FAQs

What is channelisation in the gambling industry?
Channelisation refers to the percentage of players who choose licensed, regulated gambling operators over unlicensed platforms. It is used to measure the effectiveness of regulatory frameworks.

Why is Sweden’s channelisation target set at 90 per cent?
The target was established to ensure consumer protection, market integrity and regulatory oversight, forming a core part of Sweden’s 2019 gambling reforms.

How does ATG estimate channelisation levels?
ATG uses traffic data, market observations and assumptions about average revenue per visit to calculate an estimated range for channelisation.

Why are unlicensed operators still receiving traffic from Swedish players?
Some unlicensed platforms offer bonus promotions, extensive game selections and technological features that appeal to users, despite lacking formal authorization.

Are unlicensed gambling sites illegal for players?
Swedish law primarily targets operators, not players. However, regulators advise players to use licensed sites to ensure consumer protection.

What role does BankID play in gambling transactions?
BankID is a secure digital identification system used widely in Sweden. Some unlicensed operators have enabled BankID-linked payments through third-party providers, raising regulatory concerns.

Why is sports betting more channelised than online casino?
Sports betting markets tend to be more stable, with fewer bonus-driven promotions and less aggressive marketing from unlicensed providers.

What is ATG’s stance on bonus regulations?
ATG supports a full ban on bonuses in Sweden, arguing that it would reduce the appeal of unlicensed operators and enhance consumer protection.

Why do commercial operators oppose a bonus ban?
Commercial operators argue that a ban would disadvantage newer market entrants and favour established brands such as ATG and Svenska Spel.

What actions has Spelinspektionen taken against unlicensed operators?
The regulator maintains a blacklist and enforces blocking measures, although certain unlicensed platforms continue to attract traffic despite these efforts.