Could Europe Replace Starlink if Musk Shuts it Down?

The abrupt decision by the US to freeze military aid to Ukraine has sent shockwaves through geopolitical circles. But while the immediate consequences on the battlefield may be limited, a far more pressing concern looms: What happens if the US also cuts Ukraine’s access to Starlink?

The satellite internet system, controlled by Elon Musk ’s SpaceX , has been critical for Ukrainian forces, ensuring secure battlefield communications and enabling real-time drone operations. Now, as fears grow that Musk, who has demonstrated an alarming willingness to dictate military strategy, could unilaterally pull the plug, Europe may need to step in. But is it up to the task?

Europe’s OneWeb: A Viable Contender?

Unlike Starlink, which operates as a private entity with significant influence concentrated in Musk’s hands, the European alternative, Eutelsat OneWeb , has a different structure. Originally a UK-led initiative, OneWeb’s satellite network was later acquired by Eutelsat, a Franco-British operator. The company has confirmed that its services are already being used in Ukraine, particularly for governmental and institutional communications.

A spokesperson for Eutelsat has stated that the company is actively working with European institutions to deploy additional terminals for critical operations. However, whether OneWeb can seamlessly replace Starlink remains uncertain.

With approximately 600 satellites in orbit (far fewer than STARLINK’s estimated 7,000) OneWeb's coverage might seem limited. However, its satellites operate at a higher altitude of 1,200 kilometers, roughly double Starlink’s, which allows each unit to cover a broader area. Additionally, OneWeb’s network is complemented by several geostationary (GEO) satellites positioned at 36,000 kilometers, offering a level of redundancy that Starlink does not.

The Geopolitical Gamble of Starlink

This crisis underscores a larger issue: the dangerous reliance on a single private company for military-critical communications. Starlink’s dominance has given Musk disproportionate influence over global conflicts, and his unpredictable decision-making has already raised concerns. The idea that one billionaire (whose erratic statements often align disturbingly well with Russian propaganda) could single-handedly disrupt Ukraine’s battlefield capabilities is an alarming indictment of the West’s strategic failures.

Meanwhile, Russia stands to benefit from any disruptions. If Ukraine is forced into a sudden and chaotic transition away from Starlink, its military operations, particularly drone warfare and secure frontline communications, could suffer a major setback. Some experts warn that without Starlink, Ukraine would struggle to maintain its current technological advantage over Russian forces.

A European Solution or another Empty Promise?

Eutelsat insists that its technology can match Starlink’s capabilities in Europe, including low latency, which is crucial for military applications like drone control. Talks are already underway between Eutelsat and the European Commission to expand Ukraine’s access to the network.

Financial markets seem to have taken notice: Eutelsat’s stock price has skyrocketed in anticipation of its potential role in replacing Starlink. However, not all military analysts share this optimism. Melinda Haring, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told Reuters that Starlink remains irreplaceable for Ukraine’s drone operations.

Eutelsat itself has been cautious in its statements, acknowledging that integration into Ukraine’s military infrastructure would depend on security protocols, operational requirements, and system compatibility. A transition period would be unavoidable, and during this critical phase, Ukraine could find itself vulnerable to Russian advances.

The Real Lesson: Stop Relying on the US and Musk

Regardless of whether OneWeb can provide a full-fledged alternative, this situation highlights the West’s failure to develop independent, resilient infrastructure. The fact that Europe is now scrambling to counterbalance an impulsive tech billionaire’s whims is a glaring policy misstep.

This crisis should serve as a wake-up call: Europe must invest in its own defense capabilities instead of relying on unreliable US leadership and the unpredictable decisions of corporate oligarchs. The question is not whether an alternative to Starlink exists; it is why Europe allowed itself to become dependent on an American billionaire’s goodwill in the first place.

FAQs

Why is the US decision to freeze military aid to Ukraine significant? The freeze raises concerns about Ukraine’s access to vital military resources, including satellite internet services like Starlink, which are crucial for secure communications and drone operations.

What role does Starlink play in Ukraine's military strategy? Starlink, operated by Elon Musk's SpaceX, provides essential satellite internet for secure battlefield communications, enabling real-time drone operations and other critical military activities.

How could Europe replace Starlink’s services for Ukraine? Europe’s Eutelsat OneWeb could be a potential alternative, with its satellite network already in use for some Ukrainian communications. However, its capability to fully replace Starlink remains uncertain.

What are the advantages of Eutelsat OneWeb over Starlink? OneWeb operates at a higher altitude with fewer satellites, providing broader coverage. It also has redundancy through geostationary satellites, unlike Starlink’s system.

Why is reliance on a private company like SpaceX problematic? Starlink’s control by Elon Musk gives him significant influence over military-critical communications, raising concerns about his unpredictability and potential disruption in global conflicts.

What would happen if Starlink were cut off from Ukraine? Ukraine could suffer setbacks in military operations, particularly in drone warfare and secure communications, weakening its technological advantage over Russian forces.

Can Eutelsat OneWeb’s technology match Starlink’s capabilities? Eutelsat claims its technology can offer similar capabilities, including low latency, which is crucial for military applications like drone control. However, experts remain cautious about its full potential.

What challenges would Ukraine face in transitioning from Starlink to OneWeb? The integration process would be complicated and dependent on security protocols, operational requirements, and compatibility, leaving Ukraine vulnerable during the transition period.

How have financial markets reacted to Eutelsat’s potential role? Eutelsat’s stock price has increased, as markets anticipate the company’s role in potentially replacing Starlink for Ukraine’s military communications.

What is the broader lesson from the reliance on Starlink for military communications? The crisis highlights Europe’s failure to build independent, resilient infrastructure, emphasizing the need for Europe to invest in its own defense capabilities rather than relying on external and unpredictable actors like Musk.