European gambling regulators warn on prediction market risks

Nine European gambling regulators have announced a coordinated effort to strengthen oversight of prediction market platforms ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The joint initiative reflects growing concern among authorities about the rapid expansion of these platforms and the challenges they may present for consumer protection, regulatory compliance and betting integrity.

The statement was issued by gambling regulators from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland. Together, these authorities have committed to increasing cross-border cooperation during one of the world’s most significant sporting events.

The announcement highlights the increasing attention being paid to prediction markets, which allow users to speculate on the outcomes of political, sporting, economic and geopolitical events. Regulators stated that these platforms have evolved significantly in recent years and now attract substantial user activity across multiple jurisdictions.

Growing scrutiny of prediction markets

Prediction markets have expanded beyond their original niche audience and are increasingly visible within the broader online betting and financial technology sectors. While some platforms position themselves as trading or forecasting tools, regulators noted that many products can resemble gambling activities depending on their structure and the laws of individual jurisdictions.

According to the joint statement, gambling regulators are concerned that certain prediction market operators may offer services without obtaining the licences required under national laws. This can create uncertainty for consumers and challenges for enforcement authorities.

The regulators explained that platforms operating without local authorisation may not be subject to the same safeguards required of licensed gambling operators. These safeguards often include responsible gambling measures, age verification procedures, consumer protection controls and monitoring systems designed to identify suspicious betting activity.

Concerns over player protection

A central theme of the regulators’ statement is player protection. Authorities emphasised that regulated gambling markets generally require operators to implement a variety of measures intended to reduce gambling-related harm.

In contrast, regulators expressed concern that some prediction market platforms may operate in jurisdictions where they are not licensed and therefore may not be required to follow local consumer protection standards. Particular attention was drawn to the absence of operator-imposed betting limits, time restrictions and robust age verification measures in certain cases.

Authorities stated that these differences may expose consumers to additional risks, particularly during high-profile sporting events that generate significant public interest and increased betting activity.

The regulators also noted that the international nature of many online platforms can complicate enforcement efforts when services are offered across multiple countries.

Increased monitoring during FIFA World Cup 2026

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is expected to attract a global audience and generate substantial betting activity across licensed and unlicensed markets. As a result, gambling regulators have pledged to enhance cooperation throughout the tournament.

The participating authorities indicated that they will share information and coordinate monitoring efforts to help ensure compliance with applicable laws and regulations. Particular focus will be placed on advertising standards, betting integrity requirements and consumer protection obligations.

Regulators stated that operators offering services in participating jurisdictions will be expected to comply with all relevant legal and licensing requirements. Where authorities identify activities that they believe violate national regulations, enforcement measures may be considered in accordance with applicable laws.

The coordinated approach reflects a broader trend toward international regulatory cooperation as online gambling services increasingly operate across national borders.

Warning to sports organisations and commercial partners

The joint statement also included guidance for sports federations, leagues, clubs and teams. Regulators encouraged organisations to verify the legal status of prediction market operators before entering into sponsorship, partnership or promotional agreements.

This recommendation reflects concerns that some operators may seek commercial relationships within sport despite not holding the licences required in certain jurisdictions.

By conducting appropriate due diligence, sports organisations can help ensure that partnerships comply with applicable laws and regulatory expectations. Such assessments are becoming increasingly important as betting-related sponsorships continue to play a significant role in the sports industry.

Regulatory concerns outlined in the statement

The regulators provided a detailed explanation of the issues that have prompted increased attention toward prediction markets.

The statement reads: “As regulators, we have a key role to play in ensuring player protection throughout the tournament and that prediction markets must operate in accordance with the licensing and regulatory requirements of a given jurisdiction. It is important to emphasise that this type of platform involves serious risks of illegality, fund blocking, fraud through insider information and financial volatility. Furthermore, because they are unregulated in most countries, they can create serious addiction problems.”

The statement reflects concerns that have emerged in several European jurisdictions regarding the distinction between regulated gambling products and other forms of event-based speculation.

Germany’s position on prediction-based platforms

Germany’s federal gambling regulator, the Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder (GGL), has previously issued public warnings regarding certain forms of prediction-based trading and social betting products.

The authority has cautioned consumers about token-based social betting platforms and event contracts offered through prediction market operators, including platforms such as Polymarket.

According to the GGL, such products are not authorised under Germany’s Fourth Interstate Gambling Treaty of 2021 and do not hold licences issued by the regulator. The authority has therefore advised consumers to exercise caution and to verify whether an operator is properly licensed before participating.

Germany’s position illustrates the broader regulatory debate taking place across Europe regarding how emerging prediction market models should be classified and supervised.

The future of cross-border enforcement

As online betting products continue to evolve, regulators face the challenge of adapting existing frameworks to new technologies and business models. The increasing popularity of prediction markets has intensified discussions about licensing requirements, consumer safeguards and the responsibilities of operators serving international audiences.

The latest joint initiative demonstrates that European authorities are prepared to work together more closely when addressing these issues. Enhanced cooperation may improve information sharing, support enforcement efforts and contribute to a more consistent regulatory approach across participating jurisdictions.

While legal frameworks differ from country to country, the common objective remains the protection of consumers and the preservation of fair and transparent markets.

Conclusion

The decision by nine European gambling regulators to coordinate their oversight efforts ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup marks a significant development in the regulation of prediction markets. As these platforms continue to grow in popularity, authorities are placing greater emphasis on licensing compliance, player protection and betting integrity.

The joint statement does not introduce new legislation, but it signals a clear intention among regulators to monitor market activity closely and take action where local laws are not respected. It also serves as a reminder to sports organisations, operators and consumers that regulatory requirements remain an important part of maintaining safe and transparent betting environments.

With the FIFA World Cup expected to generate unprecedented levels of engagement, the coming tournament may become an important test of how effectively international cooperation can address emerging challenges within the evolving online gambling landscape.

FAQs

What are prediction markets?
Prediction markets are platforms where users speculate on the outcomes of future events such as sports matches, elections or geopolitical developments.

Why are gambling regulators concerned about prediction markets?
Regulators are concerned that some platforms may operate without local licences and may not provide the consumer protections required by national laws.

Which countries signed the joint statement?
Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland participated in the initiative.

What is the focus of the regulators during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
The authorities plan to monitor advertising practices, betting integrity measures and player protection standards.

Will regulators cooperate across borders?
Yes. The participating authorities have pledged to share information and coordinate enforcement efforts where appropriate.

Are prediction markets legal in every European country?
No. The legal status of prediction markets varies between jurisdictions and depends on local regulations.

What risks did regulators identify?
The statement referenced risks including illegality, fund blocking, insider information abuse, financial volatility and potential addiction concerns.

What is betting integrity?
Betting integrity refers to measures that help ensure sporting events and betting markets remain fair, transparent and free from manipulation.

What advice was given to sports organisations?
Sports organisations were encouraged to verify the legal status of prediction market operators before entering partnerships or sponsorship agreements.

What is the GGL?
The GGL is Germany’s federal gambling regulator responsible for supervising licensed online gambling activities under German law.